ALBAWABA – After months of Hama’s largely avoiding direct escalation in Gaza, Israeli intelligence agencies have detected what they describe as unusual signs that Hamas may be shifting toward renewed military confrontation with Israel.
Israeli intelligence and the Shin Bet security agency have seen “more and more signs” in recent days that Hamas is “more willing to escalate military pressure on Israel,” Channel 12 reported.
The reported shift would represent a change in Hamas’ approach over the past ten months, since the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to end the Gaza war and the release of the remaining hostages held in the enclave.
Since then, Hamas has largely avoided direct confrontation, even as Israeli forces have conducted strikes and assassinations targeting senior members of the movement. Israeli assessments are that the group instead concentrated on rebuilding its capabilities and restoring its organizational structure within Gaza.
Signs of Change
Israeli security officials now believe the strategy may be changing.
One of the developments Channel 12 cited was the recent renewal of firing kites toward Israel, which officials reportedly see as a potential sign of increasing tensions.
The assessment comes as Hamas is also said to be facing increasing internal challenges in Gaza.
A recent security assessment by Israeli intelligence and Shin Bet officials said that Hamas’ ability to govern and control the territory has waned, while internal disputes within the movement have been unusually high.
Officials also believe Hamas’ deterrence capacity has been affected as its control over Gaza comes under increasing strain.
Israel Considers Its Options
The developments have led to discussions in Israel’s security establishment about whether the situation could offer a chance to intensify the pressure on Hamas.
Security officials reportedly discussed how Israel might use Hamas’ apparent governance woes to further weaken the movement and do more damage to its capabilities in Gaza.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz was also updated on the assessment and its conclusions.
Israeli intelligence is reported to be considering two possible courses of action for the time being: Hamas could intensify its activities against Israel to create more tension with Israeli forces or Israel could take advantage of Hamas’s compromised position and escalate its own operations against the movement.
Either could jeopardize the relative calm that has prevailed between the two sides in recent months.
